Черный лебедь. Под знаком непредсказуемости - Нассим Талеб
Шрифт:
Интервал:
Закладка:
Kim, E. Han, Adair Morse, and Luigi Zingales, 2006,"Are Elite Universities Losing Their Competitive Edge?" NBER Working Paper 12245.
Kindleberger, Charles P., 2001,Manias, Panics, and Crashes. New York: Wiley.
King,Gary,andLangcheZeng,2005,"WhenCanHistoryBeOurGuide? ThePitfallsofCounterfactualInference."WorkingPaper,Harvard University.
Kirkpatrick,Mark,andLeeAlanDugatkin,1994,"SexualSelection
andtheEvolutionaryEffectsofCopyingMateChoice."Behavioral
Evolutionary Sociobiology 34:443-449. Klayman,J.,1995,"VarietiesofConfirmationBias."InJ.Busemeyer,
R.Hastie,andD.L.Medin,eds.,Decision Making from a Cognitive
Perspective. The Psychology of Learning and Motivation 32:83-136.
NewYork:AcademicPress. Klayman,J.,andY.-W.Ha,1987,"Confirmation,Disconfirmation,and
InformationinHypothesisTesting."Psychological Review 94:211-228. Klayman,Joshua,JackB.Soil,ClaudiaGonzalez-Vallejo,andSema
Barlas,1999,"Overconfidence:ItDependsonHow,What,andWhom
YouAsk."Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
79(3):216-247. Klebanoff,Arthur,2002,The Agent London:Texere. Klein,Gary,1998,Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions.
Cambridge:TheMITPress. Knight,Frank,1921,1965,Risk, Uncertainty and Profit. NewYork:
HarperandRow.
Koehler,J.J.,B.J.Gibbs,andR.M.Hogarth,1994,"Shatteringthe
IllusionofControl:MultishotVersusSingle-shotGambles."Journal
of Behavioral Decision Making 7:183-191. Koestler,Arthur,1959,The Sleepwalkers: A History of Man's Changing
Vision of the Universe. London:Penguin. Korda,Michael,2000, Another Life: A Memoir of Other People. NewYork:
RandomHouse.
Koriat,A.,S.Lichtenstein,andB.Fischhoff,1980,"ReasonsforConfidence."Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory 6:107-118.
Kreps,J.,andN.B.Davies,1993,An Introduction to Behavioral Ecology, 3rded.Oxford:BlackwellScientificPublications.
Kristeva,Julia,1998,Time and Sense. NewYork:ColumbiaUniversity Press.
Kruger,J.,andD.Dunning,1999,"UnskilledandUnawareofIt:How DifficultiesinRecognizingOne>sOwnIncompetenceLeadtoInflated
Self-Assessments." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 77(6): 1121-1134.
Kunda, Ziva, 1990,"The Case for Motivated Reasoning." Psychological
Bulletin 108:480-498.
>1999,Social Cognition: Making Sense of People. Cambridge: The
MIT Press.
Kurz, Mordecai, 1997,"Endogenous Uncertainty: A Unified View of Market Volatility." Working Paper: Stanford University Press.
Kyburg, Henry E., Jr., 1983,Epistemology and Inference. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.
Lad, F., 1984,"The Calibration Question." British Journal of the
Philosophy of Science 35:213-221. Lahire, Bernard, 2006,La condition litteraire. Paris: Editions La
Decouverte.
Lakoff, George, and Mark Johnson, 1980,Metaphors We Live By.
Chicago: The University of Chicago Press. Lamont, Owen A., 2002,"Macroeconomic Forecasts and Microeconomic
*Forecasters." Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 48(3): 265-280.
Lane, R. D., E. M. Reiman, M. M. Bradley, P. J. Lang, G.L. Ahern, R. J. Davidson, and G.E. Schwartz, 1997,"Neuroanatomical correlates
*of pleasant and unpleasant emotion." Neuropsychologia 35(11):1437-^1444.
Langer, E. J., 1975,"The Illusion of Control." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 32:311-328.
Larrick, R. P., 1993,"Motivational Factors in Decision Theories: The Role of Self-Protection." Psychological Bulletin 113:440-450.
Leary, D. E., 1987,"From Act Psychology to Probabilistic Functionalism: The Place of Egon Brunswik in the History of Psychology." In M. G. Ash and W. R. Woodward, eds., Psychology in Twentieth-century Thought and Society. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
LeDoux, Joseph, 1998,The Emotional Brain: The Mysterious Underpinnings of Emotional Life. New York: Simon 8cSchuster.
,2002,Synaptic Self: How Our Brains Become Who We Are. New
York: Viking.
LeGoff, Jacques, 1985,Les intellectuels au moyen age. Paris: Points
Histoire.
Levi,Isaac,1970,Gambling with Truth. Cambridge,Mass.:TheMITPress. Lichtenstein,Sarah,andBaruchFischhoff,1977,"DoThoseWhoKnow
MoreAlsoKnowMoreAboutHowMuchTheyKnow?TheCalibration
ofProbabilityJudgments."Organizational Behavior and Human
Performance 20:159-183. Lichtenstein,Sarah,andBaruchFischhoff,1981,"TheEffectsof
GenderandInstructionsonCalibration."Decision Research Report
81-5.Eugene,Ore.:DecisionResearch. Lichtenstein,Sarah,BaruchFischhoff,andLawrencePhillips,
1982,"CalibrationofProbabilities:TheStateoftheArtto1980."
InD.Kahneman,P.Slovic,andA.Tversky,eds.,Judgment Under
Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge:CambridgeUniversity
Press.
Lim,Т.,2001,"RationalityandAnalysts'ForecastBias" Journal of Finance 56(1):369-385.
Lissowski,Grzegorz,Tadeuszlyszka,andWlodzimierzOkrasa,1991, "PrinciplesofDistributiveJustice:ExperimentsinPolandand America."Journal ofConflict Resolution 35(1):98-119.
Liu,Jing,1998,"Post-EarningsAnnouncementDriftandAnalysts' Forecasts."WorkingPaper,UCLA.
Loewenstein,G.F.,E.U.Weber,С.K.Hsee,andE.S.Welch,2001,"Risk asFeelings."Psychological Bulletin 127:267-286.
Loewenstein,George,1992,"TheFallandRiseofPsychological ExplanationsintheEconomicsofIntertemporalChoice."InGeorge LoewensteinandJonElster,eds.,Choice over Time. NewYork:Russell SageFoundation.
Loftus,ElizabethF.,andKatherineKetcham,1994,The Myth of Repressed Memory: False Memories and Allegations and Sexual Abuse. NewYork:St.Martin'sPress.
Lotka,AlfredJ.,1926,"TheFrequencyDistributionofScientificProductivity."Journal of the Washington Academy of Sciences 16(12): 317-323.
Lowenstein,R.,2000,When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management. NewYork:RandomHouse.
Lucas,RobertE.,1978,"AssetPricesinanExchangeEconomy." Econometrica 46:1429-1445.
Luce,R.D.,andH.Raiffa,1957,Games and Decisions: Introduction and Critical Survey. NewYork:Wiley.
Mach,Е.,1896,"On the Part Played by Accident in Invention and Discovery." Monist 6:161-175.
Machina,M. J., and M. Rothschild, 1987,"Risk." In J. Eatwell, M. Mil-gate, and P. Newman, eds., 1987.
Magee,Bryan, 1985,Philosophy and the Real World: An Introduction to
Karl Popper La Salle, 111.: Open Court Books.,1997,Confessions of a Philosopher. London: Weidenfeld &c
Nicolson.
Maines,L. A., and J. R. Hand, 1996,"Individuals' Perceptions and Misperceptions of Time-series Properties of Quarterly Earnings." Accounting Review 71:317-336.
Makridakis,S., A. Andersen, R. Carbone, R. Fildes, M. Hibon, R. Le-wandowski, J . Newton, R. Parzen, and R. Winkler, 1982,"The Accuracy of Extrapolation (Time Series) Methods: Results of a Forecasting Competition." Journal of Forecasting 1:111-153.
Makridakis,S., C. Chatfield, M. Hibon, M. Lawrence, T. Mills, K. Ord, and L. F. Simmons, 1993,"The M2-Competition: A Real-Time Judgmentally Based Forecasting Study" (with commentary). International Journal of Forecasting 5:29.
Makridakis,S., and M. Hibon, 2000,"The Мз-Competition: Results, Conclusions and Implications." International Journal of Forecasting 16:451-476.
Mandelbrot,В., 1963,"The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices."
Journal of Business 36(4):394-419. Mandelbrot,Benoit, 1965,"Information Theory and Psycholinguistics."
In B. Wolman and E. Nagel, eds., Scientific Psychology: Principles and
Approaches. New York: Basic Books.
,1975,Les objets fractals: forme, hasard, et dimension. Paris:
Flammarion.
,1982,The Fractal Geometry of Nature. New York: W. H. Freeman
and Company.
,1997a,Fractales, hasard et finance. Paris: Flammarion.
,1997b,Fractals and Scaling in Finance: Discontinuity,
Concentration, Risk. New York: Springer-Verlag. Mandelbrot,Benoit, and Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 2006a,"A Focus
on the Exceptions That Prove the Rule." In Mastering Uncertainty:
Financial Times Series.
,2006b,"Matematica della sagessa." // Sole 24Ore, October 9.
,2007а,"RandomJumpNotRandomWalk."Manuscript.
,2007b,"Mildvs.WildRandomness:FocusingonRisks
thatMatter."ForthcominginFrankDiebold,NeilDoherty, andRichardHerring,eds.,The Known, the Unknown and the
> Unknowable in Financial Institutions. Princeton,N.J.:Princeton UniversityPress.
Mandler,J.M.,andL.McDonough,1998,"StudiesinInductive InferenceinInfancy."Cognitive Psychology 37:60-96.
Margalit,Avishai,2002,The Ethics of Memory. Cambridge,Mass.: HarvardUniversityPress.
Markowitz,Harry,1952,"PortfolioSelection."Journal of Finance (March):77-91.
,1959,Portfolio Selection: Efficient Diversification of Investments,
2nded.NewYork:Wiley.
Marmott,Michael,2004,The Status Syndrome: How Social Standing Affects Our Health and Longevity. London:Bloomsbury.
Marr,D.,1982,Vision. NewYork:W.H.FreemanandCompany.
Masters,John,1969,Casanova. NewYork:BernardGeisAssociates.
May,R.M.,1973,Stability and Complexity in Model Ecosystems. Princeton, N.J.:PrincetonUniversityPress.
May,R.S.,1986,"OverconfidenceasaResultofIncompleteandWrong Knowledge."InR.W.Scholz,ed.,Current Issues in West German Decision Research. FrankfurtamMain,Germany:Lang.
Mayseless,O.,andA.W.Kruglanski,1987,"WhatMakesYouSo Sure?EffectsofEpistemicMotivationsonJudgmentalConfidence. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 39:162-183.
McClelland,A.G.R.,andF.Bolger,1994,"TheCalibrationofSubjective Probabilities:TheoriesandModels,1980-1994."InG.Wrightand P.Ayton,eds.,Subjective Probability. Chichester,England:Wiley.
McCloskey,Deirdre,1990,If You're So Smart: The Narrative of Economic Expertise. Chicago:TheUniversityofChicagoPress.
,1992,"TheArtofForecasting:FromAncienttoModernTimes."
Cato Journal 12(1):23-43.
McClure,SamuelM.,DavidI.Laibson,GeorgeF.Loewenstein,and JonathanD.Cohen,2004,"SeparateNeuralSystemsValueImmediate andDelayedMonetaryRewards."Science 306(5695):503-507.
McManus,Chris,2002,Right Hand, Left Hand. London:OrionBooks.
McNees,StephenК.,1978,"RebuttalofArmstrong."Journal of Business 5i(4):573-577.
,1995,"AnAssessmentofthe'Official1EconomicForecasts."New
England Economic Review (July/August):13-23. McNeill,WilliamH.,1976,Plagues and Peoples. NewYork:Anchor
Books.
Medawar,Peter,1996,The Strange Case of the Spotted Mice and Other Classic Essays on Science. Oxford:OxfordUniversityPress.
Meehl,PaulE.,1954,Clinical Versus Statistical Predictions: A Theoretical Analysis and Revision of the Literature. Minneapolis:Universityof MinnesotaPress.
>1973,"WhyIDoNotAttendinCaseConferences."InPsy-
chodiagnosis: Selected Papers, 225-302.Minneapolis:Universityof
MinnesotaPress.■»•»»iц.:*к.5.
Mendenhall,RichardR.,1991,"EvidenceofPossibleUnderweighting ofEarnings-relatedInformation."Journal of Accounting Research 29: 170-178.