Позитивные изменения. Том 2, № 3 (2022). Positive changes. Volume 2, Issue 3 (2022) - Редакция журнала «Позитивные изменения»

Some grantmaking organizations are implementing the theory of change into their practice of submitting grant proposals, accompanied by educational programs.

Moreover, the monitoring and evaluation tools described in the standard, which involve a variety of data from different sources, can be included in the project at the planning stage, and the easiest way to do this is to correlate elements of the theory of change to their corresponding indicators and research methods. As the aforementioned authors write, theory of change helps operationalize the concept being measured, which allows us to formulate the means of evaluation.

The popularity of the theory of change as a design and evaluation tool in Russia is growing gradually. Some grantmaking organizations, such as the Toward Change Foundation and The Way Home Foundation, are implementing the theory of change into their practice of submitting grant proposals, accompanied by educational programs that allow applicants to become familiar with this tool of project work.

However, there is no widespread practice of implementation yet. In particular, as a study of foreign and Russian experience in evaluating NGO project activities shows[32], the Presidential Grants Fund, which is currently the largest entity financing social projects in the country, does not yet see the prospects and opportunities for introducing the theory of change, as well as requirements to evaluate social effects and impact for its grantees, believing that it would significantly complicate the procedure for issuing and receiving grants. In general, the application of the theory of change in Russia at this stage is an exception, rather than a general standard or rule. This is largely due to the labor intensity of its implementation, including the lack of appropriate digital tools to simplify the task, as well as the general lack of information on the terms and procedures for developing a theory of change. It is worth noting that the first methodological handbook on developing a theory of change in Russian was not published until 2021.

In general, the application of the theory of change in Russia at this stage is an exception, rather than a general standard or rule. This is largely due to the labor intensity of its implementation.

Interestingly, in a collection of English-language articles on the use of the theory of change in world practice, this approach is characterized as “trendy, over-used… methodology” (Vun, 2021). This vividly demonstrates the gap in approaches used in social change projects. On the one hand, catch-up development makes it possible to avoid the problems of growth: late introduction of the technology makes it possible to avoid the mistakes of an earlier version. Such errors in the context of the theory of change include the lack of implementation of monitoring and evaluation practices, as well as the lack of involvement of the affected players. On the other hand, years and even decades have passed since the weaknesses of the methodology have been addressed, and the use of the methodology in Russia remains at an initial level without any counterpart being present.

STRUCTURE OF THE THEORY OF CHANGE: AN EXAMPLE OF THE THEORY OF POSITIVE CHANGE

Based on the reviewed sources, it is possible to isolate the unchangeable elements of the theory of change and add to them the elements of assessment and involvement, adapted to the Russian context. This is how the “Theory of Positive Change” developed by the Factory[33] came about, which can be distinguished from other approaches to creating a theory of change. The advantage of this approach is that it emphasizes the conditions and assumptions, which results in a theory of change rather than a logical model. Indicators of elements in the results map are an indispensable element of the Theory of Positive Change: not only do they allow you to clarify the subject of social change, but also to build the necessary channels of communication with target audiences, which is necessary for their involvement. Complementing the traditional approach, the Theory of Positive Change includes two additional blocks for calculating the index of evidence and the index of validity. The first indicates the properties of the monitoring and evaluation model, the second describes the sources of justification for judgments about the planned changes. In addition, the model is supplemented by economic calculations — current liquidity, financial stability and profitability of sales for projects that involve a mechanism of financial sustainability through the sale of goods/services (i.e. social entrepreneurship).

The phrase “positive change” in the name of the approach refers to the notion of impact as a social change resulting from a development project. The Theory of Positive Change uses accepted vocabulary in Russia (for example, from the Presidential Grants Fund’s Grant Application Rules[34] and the aforementioned Standard for Evidence-Based Social Practices) and constructs it as elements of Theory of Positive Change, which are taken in particular from the manual “Theory of Change in Ten Steps” by James Noble (2019) and publications by John Mayne (2006). Currently, the Theory of Positive Change is included in the model for evaluating social enterprise projects, which is planned for implementation by the Social Projects Support Fund, a federal structure that develops the environment for social projects and social entrepreneurship in Russia.

The Theory of Positive Change consists of two blocks. The first is a problem tree describing the current situation, the target audience, and the target audience’s problem in the context of the situation that requires positive change. The second block is a positive change map — an outline of project results, aligned with the chain of social results from activities through outcomes and effects toward the social impact as the final destination point.

PROBLEM TREE

• The situation is characterized by objective indicators based on verified data sources, specifying geographic and temporal dimensions.

• Target audiences are described similarly, with specific characteristics and qualities that make that audience special.